'China long-term motivation for investing in African farming could be to export food back to its home markets, a research paper from Standard Chartered bank
has warned. The world's largest country is more or less self-sufficient
in grains, but within 20-30 years it is expected to need to import an
extra 100m tonnes of food a year to meet the growing appetites of its
middle classes.
"Where China will turn to meet these
agricultural needs is the key question," said the paper's authors, who
have analysed China's involvement in African farming. "Concerns about
global food security
have raised questions over whether investments in African agriculture
are for export. While we do not see investment as securing Chinese food
security for now, this could be a longer-term motivation."
China's
investment in African agriculture is still insignificant compared with
the money it has ploughed into African oil, gas, mineral resources and
infrastructure. Of an estimated $67bn of large-scale investments in Africa
from 2006 to 2012, only $3.5bn was invested in agriculture according to
the bank, which earns 90% of its profits from Africa, Asia and the
Middle East.
But there are strong signals that China is
getting more interested in African farming. It has pledged to provide,
in the next few years, up to 3,000 experts for technical assistance and
training, as well as training 2,000 African agricultural technicians and
setting up 14 major agricultural technology centres.
Africa's
population is expected to match or overtake China's by 2050, but the
paper says China will soon need to develop deeper trade ties with key
African countries to help feed its 1.3 billion population.
"China's
current engagement in African agriculture is primarily aimed at
addressing African food security," said the report. "[But] by investing
in the region with the greatest agricultural potential, China could also
be seeking to support its long-term food security."
China, along with Middle East countries and India, has been accused of "land grabbing" in Africa,
but this may have been exaggerated, according to the paper. "Reports
that China's ZTE Agribusiness Corporation is leasing 3m ha [hectares,
7.4m acres] to produce palm oil in the Democratic Republic of [the]
Congo appear overstated," said the study. "In reality, this is likely to
be closer to a total 100,000 ha. The leasing of land by Chinese
companies across Africa is small compared with that of India and the
Middle East."
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